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Оглавление - Algorithmic skepticism
How to Trade Based on Mathematics, Not Emotions
- Introduction
- Data as the Only Objective Reality
- The Digital Evolution of Markets
- The Place of Algorithmic Trading in Modern Trading
- Technical Analysis as a Language for Describing Market Processes
- Aims of the Book and Its Audience
- Structure and Logic of the Exposition
- Trading as a Path of Continuous Learning
- Chapter 1: The Philosophy of Algorithmic Skepticism
- The Market as a System, Not an Oracle
- Liquidity as the Primary Substance of the Market
- The Order Book as a Mirror of Intentions
- Volatility as a Language of Uncertainty
- The Architecture of Analysis: From Disparate Data to an Integrated System
- The Principle of Feedback as a Condition for System Survival
- Skepticism as a Method, Not a Denial
- Chapter 2: Cognitive Traps of the Retail Trader
- The Brain as Adversary: Why Intuition Misleads Us in the Market
- Belief in Patterns: How the Brain Finds Order Where None Exists
- Confirmation Bias: The Trader’s Selective Memory
- The Anchoring Effect: The Prison of the Entry Price
- The Availability Heuristic: The Illusion of Competence After a Winning Streak
- Underestimating Nonlinearity: Linear Thinking in a Nonlinear World
- The Myth of Control and the Illusion of Simplicity: The Final Trap
- Chapter 3: Vulnerabilities of Algorithmic Systems
- Overfitting: The Trap of Perfect History
- Dependence on Liquidity as a Hidden Foundation
- Temporal Lags as a Built-In Delay from Reality
- Emergent Behavior: When Multiple Algorithms Create a New Reality
- Inadequate Volatility Assessment
- Cognitive Biases of Developers as a Hidden Source of Systemic Risk
- Chapter 4: Metrics and Filters for Market Analysis
- Three Pillars of Filtration: Volatility, Liquidity, Momentum
- Volatility as a Risk Calculation Tool, Not Merely an Indicator
- Liquidity as the Foundation of Idea Execution
- Momentum and Its True Nature
- Timeframe Selection as an Architectural Decision
- Signal Filtering by Volume
- Oscillators in the Context of Trend
- The Synthesis of Metrics as the Foundation of a Robust System
- Chapter 5: Risk and Position Management
- The Mathematics of Position Size: From Intuition to Formula
- Volatility as the Foundation for Stop-Loss Calculation
- Adaptation to Changing Liquidity
- Correlation of Risk and Capital Allocation
- Dynamic Risk Adjustment Based on Performance
- Practical Synthesis: Risk as a Unified System
- Chapter 6: The Anatomy of Trading Discipline
- Discipline as an Engineering Construct, Not a Moral Category
- The First Point of Failure: Entry and the Tyranny of Urgency
- The Second Point of Failure: Position Management and the Real-Time Erosion of Rules
- The Third Point of Breakdown: Exit and the Trap of Insatiability
- Post-Trading Audit as the Only Tool Against Adaptation to One’s Own Errors
- Discipline as a Closed Loop, Not a One-Time Effort
- Chapter 7: Market Microstructure: The Order Book and Volume
- Volume-Weighted Average Price as an Indicator of Fair Value
- Trade Clustering: Where the Market Makes Decisions
- The Volume Delta: Measuring the Balance of Aggression
- Liquidity Traps: The Anatomy of Market Deception
- Synthesis of a Multi-Layered Filter System
- Chapter 8: Free Resources for Learning Technical Analysis
- The Illusion of Free Education and the Price of Inattention
- Platforms for Market Observation
- Books and Structured Courses as a Counterweight to Video Content Chaos
- YouTube Channels, Blogs, and Communities: How to Distinguish Signal from Noise in Content Itself
- Demo Accounts as a Laboratory Without Consequences
- Strategy Testers and Practical Hypothesis Verification
- Synthesis: Building Your Own Learning System
- Chapter 9: Vulnerabilities of Classical Technical Analysis
- False Breakouts as a Structural Feature, Not an Exception
- The Historical Memory of Indicators Against Market Nonstationarity
- Liquidity Imbalance as the Invisible Engine of Price Anomalies
- The Illusion of Validation: Why a Successful Strategy on Historical Data Is Deceptive
- Information Asymmetry: How Large Capital Uses Technical Levels Against Retail
- Timeframe Conflict and the Paradox of Multi-Timeframe Analysis
- Chapter 10: Bitcoin as Digital Gold: Market Mechanics
- Liquidity as a Measure of Asset Maturity
- The Order Book as a Microscope of Market Psychology in Numbers
- The Nature and Measurement of Bitcoin Volatility
- Comparative Anatomy: Bitcoin and Gold as Stores of Value
- The Architecture of Decentralization: How an Asset Without a Center Is Structured
- Correlation with Risk Assets: The Dual Nature of Bitcoin
- Infrastructure Maturity as a Precondition for Full Status as Digital Gold
- Chapter 11: The Psychology of the Crypto Market
- The Illusion of Control: The Myth of «Catching the Bottom»
- Herd Behavior and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies
- Hyperbolic Discounting: Sacrificing the Future for Immediate Gratification
- Confirmation Bias: How the Brain Deceives Itself
- The Anchoring Effect: The Power of Arbitrary Numbers Over Reason
- The Synthesis of Biases and the Path to Systemic Thinking
- Chapter 12: Manipulations and Vulnerabilities of the Crypto Market
- Liquidation Cascades as Weapons of Mass Capital Destruction
- Information Asymmetry at the Moment of News Events
- Manipulations on the Eve of the Halving
- Structural Dependence on Mining Infrastructure
- Regulatory Gaps as an Arbitrage Opportunity
- Psychological Levels and Their Exploitation by Algorithms
- Chapter 13: Practical Work with Bitcoin as an Asset
- From Speculative Instrument to Portfolio Component
- Volume as a Language of Market Force
- Volume Delta and Liquidity Microstructure
- Choosing a Timeframe for Your Investment Horizon
- Noise Filtering as a Mandatory Discipline
- The Regulatory Environment as a Separate Layer of Analysis
- Synthesis of Approach: Building an Integrated Observation System
- Chapter 14: The Importance of Backtesting: Fundamentals
- The Illusion of Clean Data
- The Order Book as a Source of Truth
- Volatility as a Variable, Not a Constant
- Slippage, Commissions, and Execution Costs
- Interaction with Market Microstructure
- Time Horizons: How Much History Is Enough
- From Theoretical Model to Working Prototype
- Chapter 15: Backtesting Vulnerabilities and Errors
- The Illusion of Statistical Robustness
- Overfitting as a Form of Self-Deception
- Noise Mistaken for Signal
- The Market as a Moving Target
- The Psychology of the Executor Against the Logic of the Algorithm
- Superficiality of Testing and the False Sense of Completeness
- Blindness to External Factors and Systemic Risks
- Chapter 16: Advanced Backtesting Methodology
- Key Performance Indicators: Beyond the Obvious
- Choosing a Time Interval as an Engineering Problem
- Volume as a Filter of Plausibility
- Testing Across Different Phases of the Market Cycle
- Stress Tests as an Instrument of Testing to Destruction
- Scenario Modeling and Multiple Market Universes
- Chapter 17: Visualizing Market Profile: Fundamentals
- The Logic of Building TPO: From the Chaos of Ticks to Statistical Form
- Value Area and Point of Control: The Anatomy of Market Consensus
- Profile Asymmetry as an Indicator of Hidden Directivity
- VWAP and Profile: Two Views of the Same Fair Price
- The Order Book as an X-Ray of Profile Structure
- Failed Auctions: The Mechanics of Collective Perception Deception
- Chapter 18: Cognitive Biases in Working with Market Profile
- The Concept Substitution Error: When the Tool Replaces Thinking
- Fixation on the Point of Control as a Form of Cognitive Laziness
- The Illusion of Control When Using Free Tools
- FOMO in the Context of Profile Analysis
- Confirmation Bias in the Interpretation of Auction Structure
- Synthesis: Returning to Auction Logic as an Antidote
- Chapter 19: Vulnerabilities and the Practice of Profile Visualization
- Gaps as Ruptures in the Information Field
- The Period of Data Aggregation and Its Hidden Tyranny
- False Value Areas as a Tool of Manipulation
- Configuring Visualization Tools: From the Illusion of Precision to Real Diagnostics
- Timeframe Selection as a Compromise Between Noise and Blindness
- Volume Filters: Separating Signal from Institutional Noise
- Synthesis of Practice: Building a Robust Diagnostic System
- Chapter 20: How to Read Charts: The Architecture of Price
- The Chart as a Record of Battle, Not a Picture
- Anatomy of a Candle: Body as a Zone of Consensus, Wick as the Trace of Rejected Price
- Bars and Candles: Different Languages of the Same Mechanics
- Trend as Accumulated Liquidity Asymmetry
- Support and Resistance Levels as Zones of Accumulated Market Memory
- Breakout of a Level: The Moment of Truth and the Shift in Its Function
- Synthesis of Elements: From Individual Candles to Integrated Architecture
- Chapter 21: Cognitive Biases in Reading Charts
- The Illusion of Pattern: Why the Brain Sees What Isn’t There
- Confirmation Bias: How Beliefs Distort Price Perception
- The Herd Effect and the Magic of Round Numbers
- Fear of Missing Out as a Driver of Irrational Decisions
- Loss Aversion and the Asymmetry of Pain
- The Interaction of Biases: How Errors Reinforce Each Other
- Practical Mechanisms for Protection Against Distortions
- Chapter 22: Algorithm Vulnerabilities in Chart Reading
- The Illusion of Chart Objectivity
- The Trap of Trend Misinterpretation
- The Mirage of Support and Resistance Levels
- The Problem of Stop-Losses: Between Protection and Self-Destruction
- The Error of Choosing the Wrong Timeframe
- Absence of Adaptation to Market Regime Change
- Chapter 23: Multi-Timeframe Analysis
- The Nature of Scale Divergence
- The Hierarchy of Timeframes as a System of Filters
- Synthesis of Indicators Against Single Signals
- The Role of Volume as a Bridge Between Scales
- Practical Architecture of a Multi-Timeframe Solution
- The Traps of False Synchronization
- Temporal Asymmetry and Delayed Reaction
- Conclusion
- The Path from Chaos to System
- From Understanding to Action: Building an Algorithm
- Discipline as the Architecture of Survival
- Continuous Learning as the Only Constant
- Prospects for Algorithmic Trading: Where the Industry Is Heading
- Synthesis: The Market as a Language to Be Learned
- Final Word: The Path, Not the Destination
- Glossary